Mortgage and refinance rates today, Feb. 11, 2022

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates rose sharply yesterday. Ten days in, and February is already looking like a nightmare for those rates.

So far this morning, markets are signaling that mortgage rates today might edge downward or remain unchanged. But they looked the same way on Wednesday only to end the afternoon slightly higher. So don’t bank on these daily predictions during these turbulent times unless movements are strong.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Feb 12th, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

After mortgage rates rose sharply last week, I noted that they often fall after periods of increases. That didn’t materialize then but it might soon – perhaps beginning today.

Just don’t expect much relief if such a fall does come along. These tend to be brief and shallow. And any imminent ones are likely to recover only a small fraction of the ground mortgage rates have lost so far in February. Worse, there may be no falls at all.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 2.01% from 1.99%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) But they were falling this morning. More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices moved higher to $91.01 from $90.57 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices held steady at $1,832 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index – inched up to 40 from 38 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might edge lower or hold steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Feb 12th, 2022)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top–tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Yesterday was terrible for mortgage rates – roughly as bad as last Friday was. Indeed, the first 10 days of February have been disastrous.

Using Mortgage News Daily’s archive, we can see that the average rate for a 30–year, fixed–rate mortgage began the month at 3.68%. Yesterday, that same rate was 4.02%. Such sharp increases in such a short time are exceedingly rare.

What’s next?

If you locked your mortgage rate a while back, you’re entitled to pat yourself on the back and feel a bit smug.

But what if you didn’t? What if you’re still floating your rate?

Well, you just might benefit from a brief dip in mortgage rates sometime soon, possibly today. These often occur after sharp rises. But they tend to be relatively brief and shallow. And, sometimes, they don’t turn up at all.

Overall, it looks to me as if the hole you’re in is getting deeper. And, if I were you, I’d cut my losses and lock my rate on the first day that rates look set to rise.

But I can’t guarantee that rates will carry on rising. It’s always possible that some earth–shattering event will come along and send those rates tumbling. A new COVID–19 variant that is as infectious as Omicron but much more harmful might do it. Or the United States getting dragged into a war with Russia over Ukraine. Or a stock market crash. But let’s hope those remain unlikely.

And, anyway, I can’t tell you what to do. All I can do is give you my perspective. How you value that and what you do with it is entirely up to you.

If you want a comprehensive overview of what’s been happening to mortgage rates so far in February, visit this page tomorrow. I’ll be running through the key details in the weekend edition.

For a more detailed look at what’s happening to mortgage rates, read the latest weekend edition of this report.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all–time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30–year fixed–rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, since last September, the rises have grown more pronounced, though not consistently so. So far in 2022, rises have been appreciable and relatively consistent.

Freddie’s Feb. 10 report puts that weekly average for 30–year, fixed–rate mortgages at 3.69% (with 0.8 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.55%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30–year, fixed–rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Jan. 19 and Freddie’s and the MBA’s on Jan. 21.

Forecaster	Q1/22	Q2/22	Q3/22	Q4/22
Fannie Mae	3.2%	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
Freddie Mac	3.5%	3.6%	3.7%	3.7%
MBA	3.3%	3.5%	3.7%	4.0%

Personally, I was surprised that Fannie Mae only slightly increased its rate forecasts in January. It believes that rates for 30–year, fixed–rate mortgages will average 3.2% over the current quarter. But, on the day its figures were published, we reported those for conventional loans were already up to 3.87%.

Do Fannie’s economists expect those rates to plummet later this month or in February or March and remain lower in the following quarters? If so, they know something that I don’t. And that their peers in Freddie and the MBA’s teams don’t, either, though I’m less optimistic than any of them.

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Show me today’s rates (Feb 12th, 2022)

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.